The open source analysis of competing hypotheses project. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a multivariable, qualitative technique that aids judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Intelligence organizations promote the use of structured methods such as analysis of competing hypotheses ach to improve judgment accuracy and analytic rigor, but these methods have received. Theory and practice in teaching unformatted document text.
Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a free computer program used to evaluate multiple hypotheses. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach, archived from the original on 20080318, retrieved 200803. To complete the ach steps of fusion and conclusion. This effort has to start with a clear understanding of the inherent strengths and weaknesses of the primary analytic mechanismthe human mindand the way it processes information. Analysis by competing hypotheses a business tool from the psychology of intelligence analysis by richards j. Ach abbreviation stands for analysis of competing hypotheses. Analysis of competing hypotheses military wiki fandom. A little something used by intelligence analysts the world over. The analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a method to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. The following elements distinguish analysis of competing hypotheses from conventional intuitive analysis.
Analysis of competing hypotheses an analytical process by former cia analyst richards j heuer, jr. Structuring and analyzing competing hypotheses with. Analysis starts with a brainstorming session to identify a full set of alternative hypotheses, rather than with a most likely alternative for which the analyst seeks confirmation. Pdf the analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis. Download ach learn how to think when it comes to complex problems and use this program to conduct the analysis of competing hypotheses together with some more tools.
Apr 30, 20 one wellknown structured and facilitated approach in the intelligence community for comparing hypotheses is analysis of competing hypotheses ach. Analysis of competing hypotheses, sometimes abbreviated ach, is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Its simplicity creates both strengths and weaknesses. A dot gov website, they provide eight high level steps. The former provides a methodology for overcoming intelligence biases while the latter outlines how mental models and natural biases impede clear thinking and analysis. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem. As we have included ach in our geospatial analytic method, it takes the geospatial analyst through a process to make wellreasoned, analytical judgments using both nongeospatial and geospatial information. A comparable effort has to be devoted to the science of analysis.
Effective application of new and classic methods, second edition book. Analysis of competing hypotheses breaks a complex problem down into its component parts. One wellknown structured and facilitated approach in the intelligence community for comparing hypotheses is analysis of competing hypotheses ach. In step 3, you worked across the matrix, focusing on a single item of evidence or argument and examining against each hypotheses. Ach is grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method.
Download ach learn how to think when it comes to complex. Jul 07, 2008 analysis of competing hypotheses, sometimes abbreviated ach, is a tool to aid judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach promises a relatively objective and tractable methodology for ranking the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Analysis of competing hypotheses definition by babylons.
Free computer program for analyzing multiple hypotheses. Pdf analysis of competing hypothesis for investigating lone wolf. It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence. Detecting deception by analysis of competing hypotheses. Encourages systematic analysis of multiple competing hypotheses. However, little evidence exists of how techniques are applied and whether they are effective. This ensures that alternative hypotheses receive equal treatment and a fair shake. This ensures that alternative hypotheses receive equal. The analysis of competing hypotheses, with its own unique pros and cons, is another. Oct 22, 2015 download ach learn how to think when it comes to complex problems and use this program to conduct the analysis of competing hypotheses together with some more tools. Structuring and analyzing competing hypotheses with bayesian. The program comes with multiple nice features and tools that you can check out, as well as some samples and. It provides a tableoriented workspace for performing the analysis of competing hypotheses ach method heuer, 1999.
Analysis of competing hypotheses wikimili, the free. It is designed to help analysts avoid confirmation bias in several respects, namely, by explicitly requiring them to a consider alternative hypotheses. Duplicate title to the analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis retired, jisc publications router manage acknowledge the intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. Cem cem brainstorming or some kind of focus group type analysis. Draft june 27, 2005 3 broad caveats for the method ach 1. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. People often ask me how i went from working for the government to fashion. Striving for analytical rigor in intelligence analysis is a given, but achieving it can be a challenge. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach the iconic tech.
It helps an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis so difficult to achieve. Ach analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. Analysis has indicated that wannacry samples from february 2017 contained a small section of code identical to those used in previous lazarus campaigns. This distinction in and of itself is cause enough to consider whether human everyday reasoning is robust and reliable enough for use in these larger contexts. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach is said to an unbiased methodology for. Analysis starts with a full set of alternative possibilities, rather than with a most likely alternative for which the analyst seeks confirmation. We examined the use of the analysis of competing hypotheses acha technique designed to reduce confirmation bias. When applying the methods detailed in this book to real studies, we will often have to consider a suite of statistical models representing competing hypotheses about the system or population and identify the better models from among them.
Analysis of competing hypotheses using subjective logic. Extending heuers analysis of competing hypotheses method. Applying the analysis of competing hypotheses to the cyber domain. The theory of analysis of competing hypotheses over the years, intelligence community practitioners have developed or adapted a range of simple or more complicated structured analytic techniques sats to aid in conducting intelligence analysis. Designed for strategic and tactical intelligence analysis national. This note provides a technical description of the program, focusing on the scoring.
Free download from parc april 22, 2009 matt artz analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence analysis. What i want to share with the digital analytics community is continue reading analysis of competing hypotheses for digital analytics. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is. Analysis of competing hypotheses breaks a complex problem down into its. It is an analytic process that identifies a complete set of alternative hypotheses, systematically evaluates data that is consistent and inconsistent with each hypothesis, and rejects hypotheses that contain too much inconsistent data. Analysis of competing hypotheses ach initially, the platform will support the analysis of competing hypotheses ach framework. Analysis of competing hypotheses discover your solutions llc. Analysis of competing hypotheses wikipedia republished. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach 7 was developed to provide a framework for assisted reasoning that would help overcome these limitations. You can see what it looks like below and make a copy.
Analysis of competing hypotheses analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a multivariable, qualitative technique that aids judgment on important issues requiring careful weighing of alternative explanations or conclusions. Nov 01, 2016 disprove your hypotheses you can have all the evidence in the world to back one hypothesis but if there is one piece of evidence that disproves it you can reject it. Analysis by competing hypothesis linkedin slideshare. Sensitivity analysis analyse how sensitive your conclusion is to a few critical items of evidence. An analytic technique created at the cia, ach helps you analyze complex situations with multiple hypotheses and countless pieces of evidence. The analysis of competing hypothesesin intelligence analysis. Competing hypothesis an overview sciencedirect topics.
The analysis of competing hypotheses ach provides an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. Disprove your hypotheses you can have all the evidence in the world to back one hypothesis but if there is one piece of evidence that disproves it you can reject it. Dick heuers ideas on how to improve analysis focus on helping. The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence. Software freeware law enforcement intelligence analysis. The analysis of competing hypotheses in intelligence analysis. At the time of writing, however, we assessed there to be insufficient evidence to corroborate this claim of attribution to this group, and alternative hypotheses should be considered. Alternative analysis, and in particular ach, is seen as so important that the cias sherman kent school for intelligence analysis runs a monthly alternative analysis workshop and has introduced an. The analysis of competing hypothesis and the cyber domain. The software downloadable here takes an analyst through a process for making a wellreasoned, analytical judgment. An analysis of competing hypotheses digital shadows. The ach framework is a good candidate for public discourse because. While the level of structured facilitation can vary e. Ultimately, there are multiple analysis tools available to the intelligence community, including opportunity analysis, linchpin analysis, ach, analogy, et cetera.
Analysis of competing hypotheses ach is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem when the available information is incomplete or ambiguous, as typically happens in intelligence. Many of these, like brain storming, key assumptions checks, what if, red teams, or devils advocacy are widely used. The analysis of competing hypotheses ach is said to an unbiased methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. Critical epistemology for analysis of competing hypotheses. Unlike explanationism, it appeals to minimally subjective judgments about relations between hypotheses and evidence.
A notoriously difficult element of cyberthreat intelligence, attribution is made even more complicated by the ambiguity of evidence associated with the discipline and the potential confusion of. Jan 20, 2011 a little something used by intelligence analysts the world over. Doc analysis of competing hypotheses ach and intelligence. Analysis of competing hypotheses, ach, is a simple model for how to think about and fuse geospatial information into analytic problems. Analysis of competing hypotheses hurricane capital. And to be honest i dont work in fashion i work in analytics for a fashion company. Analysis of competing hypotheses for digital analytics. Intelligence organizations promote the use of structured methods such as analysis of competing hypotheses ach to improve judgment accuracy and. The parc page for downloading the ach system can be reached on the link below. To explore the method further, download the full paper, applying the analysis of competing hypotheses to the cyber domain attributionrelated issues. Analysis of competing hypotheses definition by babylons free. Three key elements distinguish analysis of competing hypotheses from conventional intuitive analysis.
May 18, 2017 analysis has indicated that wannacry samples from february 2017 contained a small section of code identical to those used in previous lazarus campaigns. The intelligence community uses structured analytic techniques to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. Ach selection from business and competitive analysis. Hines, in occupancy estimation and modeling second edition, 2018. You will also find instructions and tutorials for the ach software at the pherson associates, llc web site. What is the abbreviation for analysis of competing hypotheses. In particular, the analysis phase involves the management of hypotheses and the application of prior knowledge. Analysis of competing hypothesis for investigating. Digital shadows photon research team recently released a comprehensive examination of the analysis of competing hypothesis ach method, in a full paper.
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